Arsenal faces Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium this Sunday, with both Premier League giants competing for their first trophy of the season. The highly anticipated Carabao Cup final marks another chapter in the tactical rivalry between Pep Guardiola and his former assistant Mikel Arteta, with Arsenal currently enjoying a nine-point lead over City in the Premier League standings.
The match brings together the league’s top two teams in a competition where Guardiola has dominated historically. According to statistical records, the Spanish manager has won all four Carabao Cup finals he has contested, achieving consecutive victories between the 2017-2018 and 2020-2021 seasons. No manager has ever won the trophy five times, making this final a potential milestone for the City boss.
Arsenal’s Recent Form Against Manchester City
Arsenal enters the final with confidence after remaining unbeaten in their last six matches against Manchester City across all competitions, recording two victories and four draws. This represents a significant turnaround from their previous struggles, having lost 15 of 16 matches before this impressive run. However, City has historically dominated Arsenal in the Carabao Cup specifically, winning their last four encounters by a combined score of 11-1.
The Gunners’ last victory over City in the Carabao Cup came in the third round of the 2004-2005 season. Arsenal has performed well at Wembley against City overall, winning three of five matches at the iconic venue with one draw, though their only loss came in the 2018 Carabao Cup final when they fell 3-0.
Historical Context and Predictions
According to Opta’s statistical analysis, Arsenal holds a 51.9 percent chance of winning the Carabao Cup final, compared to Manchester City’s 24.8 percent. The probability of a draw, which would lead to extra time and potentially penalty kicks, stands at 23.3 percent. Arteta has demonstrated particular success at Wembley, remaining unbeaten there as both player and manager with Arsenal, including victories in penalty shootouts.
Additionally, the historical significance extends beyond recent form. Only two teams have previously defeated Arsenal in two major cup finals: Newcastle United and Leeds United. Meanwhile, Manchester City has won eight of nine Carabao Cup finals in their history, trailing only Liverpool’s record of ten titles. The club has won their last seven consecutive finals in the competition since losing to Wolverhampton in 1974.
Pressure Mounts on Both Managers
The stakes are particularly high for Guardiola, who experienced his first trophyless season with City last year. The manager faces a challenging fixture schedule following the international break, including an FA Cup quarterfinal against Liverpool and league matches against Chelsea and Arsenal. Losing the Carabao Cup final could potentially mean two consecutive seasons without a major trophy for the first time in his managerial career.
In contrast, Arteta has won only one major trophy with Arsenal since taking charge—the 2020 FA Cup. Since that victory over Chelsea, Guardiola has led City to four major titles including the Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup, and Champions League. Arsenal seeks their third Carabao Cup triumph after previous victories in 1987 and 1993, though the Gunners have lost more finals in this competition than any other team, with six defeats including their 2018 loss to City.
Manchester City enters the final having lost their last two major cup finals, falling to Manchester United in the 2024 FA Cup and Crystal Palace in 2025. The club has never lost three consecutive major finals in its history. The outcome of Sunday’s match will determine whether Guardiola extends his Carabao Cup dominance or if Arteta finally secures a significant victory over his former mentor.
