A Rational Look at The Renaissance Dam Dispute…

A Rational Look at The Renaissance Dam Dispute

Emotions are running high in Egypt and Ethiopia about this issue, with most people looking at it as a tribal dispute, (my country right or wrong.) This never leads to a good outcome. So let’s look at it rationally, as if we are neither Egyptian nor Ethiopian.

We need to distinguish between two different phases:
1. The filling phase
2. The steady-state (operational) phase (with the reservoir full)

In each of these two phases we need to distinguish between two situations:
1. Normal year, with rainfall at or above the expected level
2. Dry year, with rainfall below expected.

So we have 4 situations:
1.1. Reservoir being filled / normal year
1.2. Reservoir being filled / dry year
2.1. Reservoir full / normal year
2.2. Reservoir full / dry year
Let us look at them one at a time.:

1.1. Reservoir being filled / normal year: It is not unreasonable for Egypt to demand that the rate of filling be such, that whatever amount of water it was getting before (at this rate of rainfall,) it would still get.

1.2. Reservoir being filled / dry year: It is reasonable for Egypt and the Sudan to demand that no filling be done in that year, so that they can get whatever little water nature (or God) has sent.

2.1. Reservoir full / normal year: With the reservoir full, whatever rain falls behind it will have to pass through as if the dam is not there. So, there are no issues here.

2.2. Reservoir full / dry year: If no rain falls in a given year, Egypt cannot expect to get water that year, (since “God” has not sent any.) It would not have gotten any water even if Ethiopia had not built a dam. In this case Egypt has 3 choices:
* Endure the drought
* Release water from her own dam (that’s why we built the High Dam in the first place).
* Ask Ethiopia to release water from the Renaissance Dam. This water would not be “from God”, but from Ethiopia; she had saved it, and it cost her money to do so. So, it is not unreasonable for Ethiopia to demand a price for that water.

I am putting this out there so people can scrutinize it and tell me what parts of my analysis are wrong and why. (No emotions, please!)

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